I think maybe the partisans at both ends have totally lost their minds now. I just got this from Dick Harpootlian:
President Barack Obama is going to win South Carolina.
You don’t believe it? Would you believe the Prince of Darkness Karl Rove?
Well click here and read his latest poll calling South Carolina a “toss up.” So even the biggest Republican propagandist in the country has to admit Barack Obama CAN win South Carolina this fall.
So help us make Karl Rove’s nightmare come true and click here to volunteer. President Obama CAN win, but only if you help. Just do it.
Hey, anything can happen, but if you’re talking probabilities… no way.
Here’s the original Rove info to which Harpootlian refers, but it doesn’t answer the question: What is the basis for putting SC in the “toss-up” column?
If anyone knows, please share.
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Well, it was only 54-45 last time for McCain. We properly think of SC as a solid red state but the margins are nowhere near those of truly red states like Utah or Wyoming, it’s not even close. But in the end I don’t think it’s really a tossup because the Obama campaign won’t spend precious campaign resources here. Also some of the Gingrich and Santorum fans here are still a bit cool to Romney, but they will come around by November.
How many people voted for Obama in 2008 in SC? More than 40%–so if right-leaning folks disdain Romney and sit it out, and the same people vote for Obama as voted for him in ’08
…yes, we can!
I don’t see the “far-right” sitting this one out if it even looks remotely competitive at the electoral college level.
Don’t forget the possibility of some who voted for Obama in 2008 not doing so in 2012.
Looks like an attempt to scare the masses.
It’s all just gamesmanship to raise money – on both sides. Pay no attention.
Mark Phillip’s comment for a later prediction check. For what it’s worth, I think he’s probably right.
I think Der Rovemeister was blowing smoke. Romney has been the chosen candidate of the Bush clan for a long time (Jeb was one of the first “name” Republicans to get on board) and he’s just reminding the Republicans that it’s either the Mormon or the black guy.
@Kathleen–Phillip is pretty much always right. Same with Mark Stewart.
Something about considered, reasoned thinking, well-expressed….
@Stan– Sure, POTUS may have lost some of the flash-in-the-pan youth vote, and some disaffected lefties may vote for 2012’s Ralph Nader, although on the latter front, surely Bush v. Gore has made most of us wise up (I am a leftie who voted happily for Gore, for the record). I think Obama may lose voters to nonvoting, but not to Romney.
To weigh in from another perspective… yes, there are probably people who voted for Obama who will simply not vote this time. There was a lot of excitement last time, and the excitement’s gone, and the excitable will go back to being non-participants.
But there are also likely to be people from the “middle” (the only place to be) who did NOT vote for Obama last time, and will this time, because of the Republicans veering so far away from the center.
Last time, the GOP went as centrist as it gets, with McCain. This year, we get the guy who was the “conservative” alternative last time around, representing a party that has gone so far off the rails that he has struggled to be nominated, being perceive as too “moderate.”
He and his party simply do not present a very attractive alternative for the unaligned.
The Obama campaign is actively recruiting volunteers in SC, to help get out the vote in NC!
Dunno, Brad–plenty of people (Christopher Buckley, Kathleen Parker) could not vote for McCain because of Palin. His centrism was pretty skewed by her.
Palin was the clincher for me; in combination with McCain’s age. Just look how much the Presidency has aged its office-holders. The risk was just too great; as was the risk posed by those in the Republican party who would push for someone like Palin and that sort of myopic, ill-informed world view.
I also believe that Obama will loose some centrists to Romney. He will also loose some of the excitable electorate who came out for his “historic” campaign. Romney is also going to really suffer from voter ennui. If he stays to the right to keep the party-line pullers coming out to the polls, the more he will burn off moderate supporters. All in all, I would guess we are going to see some really low national voting percentages.
Basically, I hope that what we are seeing most of all is the realization of the pointlessness of hysterical polarization. Right now, I could vote for either candidate and not see the End of Days.
And thanks, Kathryn, for your kind comments
If I can provoke thoughtful considerattion of issues, from any perspective, then I have given what I receive in return from others on this blog.
Everyone has a past and a present that shape and inform their world views. So changing someone’s perspective is very difficult. However, we are all much more susceptible to shaping future understanding and conceptualization as we expand and enrich our world views.
@Kathryn – “…yes, we can!”
Time to get the church buses tuned up.
I don’t see Republicans sitting this one out either, a vote for Romney is as much a vote against Obama as it is for Romney. I vote every election that Jake Knotts is in, just to vote against him even though I’m a Republican.
Obama loses a few of the less than passionate lefties this go around to the “not voting” category. That is more than made up for by the bigoted GOP voters who absolutely will not vote for a Mormon. Look what happened in the GOP primary. Romney lost big time. My guess is SC will go with Obama IF the economy improves to the point where it can no longer be denied that we are out of the recession. That would make it a wave election with all but the reddist of red states voting for the incumbent. If that were the case Obama could carry as many as 40 states. Odds are that won’t happen but it’s one possibility.
“Is this a typo, or what?”
Is Rove suddenly expert on SC politics, or merely a wishful thinker. Voters will decide, and you can take that to the bank, Brad.