PPP provides another reason to think Dem could win in 1st

Add this to the list I gave you of reasons as to why Elizabeth Colbert-Busch might (and I continue to stress “might”) have a chance of winning in the 1st Congressional District, which has been Republican since 1980:

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP’s first look at the special election in South Carolina’s 1st
Congressional District finds a toss up race. Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch leads
Republican Mark Sanford 47-45 and ties Curtis Bostic at 43.download
This is a Republican leaning district and Barack Obama’s approval rating in it is only
41% with 57% of voters disapproving of him. But Democrats are far more unified than
the Republicans are. Busch is winning 87-89% of the Democratic vote while Sanford
(76%) and Busch (72%) are both earning less than 80% of the GOP vote. Busch is also
up by 16-18 points with independent voters.
Sanford remains a strong favorite for the Republican nomination heading into next
week’s runoff. He leads Bostic 53/40. The horse race numbers closely mirror his
favorability with GOP voters- 55% see him positively to 40% with a negative opinion.
Focusing in on the potential race between Busch and Sanford it’s surprisingly close for
one simple reason- voters like Busch and they continue to strongly dislike Sanford. 45%
of voters see Busch favorably to only 31% with a negative opinion. On the other hand
Sanford is still stuck with a 34% favorability rating and 58% of voters seeing him in a
negative light….

There are a lot of Republicans (especially those who had to deal with him in the State House) who already don’t much like Mark Sanford. If his insistence on getting back into the ring costs them this seat, they’ll have another reason not to count him among their faves.

18 thoughts on “PPP provides another reason to think Dem could win in 1st”

  2. bud

    I guess I’ll have to pull for Sanford in the runoff since it seems to give Ms. Colbert-Busch a slightly better chance. Even though Sanford is a kook it really doesn’t matter which Republican wins the seat. The citizens of SC and the USA will suffer either way.

  3. Brad Warthen Post author

    Josh Voorhees from Slatest noticed something about this poll that I missed:

    Given how much has been made about how Busch is benefiting from the support of her better-known brother Stephen Colbert, the survey provides a few unexpected data points on that topic. The Comedy Central star actually fares worse than his sister when it comes to favorability ratings in the Palmetto State. Forty-five percent of respondents said they had a positive view of Busch, while only 36 percent said the same thing about Colbert. (Busch’s unfavorable rating of 31 percent was only slightly higher than her brother’s 27 percent, and within the MoE).

    Perhaps more surprising is the fact that Busch also beats her brother when you look only at those respondents who said they voted for President Obama in last year’s election, a group that you might expect to love a comedian known for lampooning conservatives. Among those voters, Busch boasted a rather remarkable 87-5 favorable-unfavorable rating, easily besting Colbert’s 62-12 split. (Of course, the favorable-unfavorable dichotomy doesn’t really do justice to Colbert’s fundraising prowess, or his ability to generate press coverage for his sister when she first tossed here proverbial hat into the ring.)

    1. Silence

      We don’t much cotton to Colbert’s kind of humor here in SC, but the name recognition still helps, I think. There’s no such thing as bad publicity. We also generally don’t like women with hyphenated last names. We find it femanist and threatening. I think she’s a real longshot against our boy Mark Sanford.

  4. bud

    We don’t much cotton to Colbert’s kind of humor here in SC…
    -Silence

    Actually many REAL South Carolinians cotton very will to Mr. Colbert and find him hillarious. It’s only the gloomy, buzz-kill, conservative South Carolinians who don’t appreciate good humor that don’t “cotton” to him.

    1. Silence

      That’s fair enough. I’d have given her a little better odds than 1:8, more like 1:3 or 1:4. Still a longshot. She’s got name recognition, and certainly a lot more national media attention than she’d have gotten if she wasn’t kin to a celebrity. I’m sure that will help with her fundraising – I’d expect that both her and Sanford will generate the bulk of their contributions from out of state, certainly from outside of the district. It’ll be interesting to look at their filings. It’s a shame though that someone has to be famous (or related to a celeb) to be a serious contender for congress these days.

  6. Doug Ross

    As I said before, just wait until after Sanford locks up the Republican slot. When the negative campaigning against Colbert-Busch begins, her numbers will surely take a hit. She’s an unknown at this point. There will be plenty of time to put her under the microscope to see how she responds.

    If I were Sanford, I would call for debates starting early in April. Put her to the test early… get as much on the record as you can as early as you can.

  7. Steve Gordy

    Doug, the real danger is that no one knows how effective a debater Colbert Busch would be. Sanford might blow her out of the water. OTOH, she could potentially wipe the floor with him.

    2. Doug Ross

      @Steve

      Is there any evidence that she has ever participated in a debate, never mind a debate for a Congressional office?

      People who have spent their careers in management positions in business typically are not open to much debate. They reach a point where they expect to be obeyed and not challenged.

      She’s going to need some talking points that energize the Democrats in the district to come out in full force while appeasing the crossover Republicans she will need to win. It will be a fine line to straddle. Sanford will get her to choose sides on abortion, guns, entitlements, taxes…
      She will be asked to defend Obamacare and demonstrate her allegiance to Obama generally.
      It’s going to be a tough task, especially for a political novice, to navigate. My guess is that she will lay low as much as possible and use surrogates to attack Sanford on the affair issue.

  8. bud

    I dunno Doug, Sanford is an awful speaker and probably not much of a debator. Once you get past his “government is evil” speel he really has nothing.

    2. Doug Ross

      @Bud

      How many elections did Sanford win as an “awful speaker”? He has never lost an election. He won as a first time Congressman in 1994, was re-elected twice, and then won as Governor twice. Not many politicians go 5 for 5 out of the box.

      I think he’s got the experience and the financial backing combined with a Republican friendly district to make it an easy road to victory.

      I am skeptical that Republicans who may not like Mark Sanford will make the effort to go out and vote for his Democrat opponent. They will more likely stay at home.

    3. Kathryn Fenner

      But it is a message that resonates with an alarming number of our fellow citizens…..

  9. bud

    Doug you make some good points. Frankly it’s a mystery to me why Sanford has been able to win 5 times. Seems like there are plenty of conservatives without all the personal baggage that would be more attractive to voters in the Charleston area this time around. I will say this though if Mr. Bostic wins the runoff that will ensure GOP control of the district. If Sanford wins then Ms. Colbert-Busch at least has an outside shot. I’d rate the odds this way. If Bostic wins he has a 95% chance of winning in the general. If Sanford wins that drops to about 70%.

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